Translation of "trois scénarios macro-économiques " (French → English) :

It used national forecasts supplemented by the scenario developed by the Commission for the macro-economic framework up to 2020, together with other traffic forecasts sourced from local, national and international authorities and detailed information regarding vehicle stocks, costs and prices.

Finance Deputies have met on three occasions to discuss macro-economic issues and prepare meetings of Finance Ministers.

the programme presents plausible macroeconomic assumptions, under three alternative scenarios, projecting real GDP growth between 2.8% and 3.4% for 1999 and between 3.0% and 4.5%, on average, for 2000-2002; the growth objectives seem attainable taking account of past performance and the dynamism of the Luxembourg economy;

the main objective of the stability programme is to ensure that the present healthy public finance position is maintained in the coming years; in all macroeconomic scenarios the general government accounts register a surplus ranging from 1% to 2 ½ % of GDP in 2002;

The Commission main conclusions are the following: the programme is broadly in line with the requirements of the Stability and Growth Pact; the programme presents three macroeconomic scenarios, but all the detailed projections for the public finance aggregates are based on the cautious scenario; in this scenario the government deficit falls to 1% of GDP in 2002; this prudent approach was adopted by the Dutch authorities to ensure sound public finances; a more optimistic scenario, the middle scenario, seems, however, to correspo ...[+++]nd more to the current consensus: in this scenario the government deficit falls close to balance in 2002; the fiscal consolidation effort projected from 1999 to 2002 appears to be less ambitious when compared with progress achieved in the years leading up to 1997; the emphasis is shifted further towards reduction in the tax burden as well as increased expenditure aimed at structural improvement; this approach is understandable but needs attentive monitoring by the Dutch authorities; all favourable opportunities should be taken in order further to reinforce the safety margin aimed at preventing the deficit exceeding the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP, and thus to strengthen the budgetary position of the Netherlands.

The programme presents three basic macroeconomic scenarios where annual average real GDP growth is expected to reach 2¼%, 2¾%, 3¼% respectively.

The Council considers that the two macroeconomic scenarios of the programme provide a plausible range of values for GDP growth between 2002-2004 and that the macroeconomic performance of France in recent years indicates a probable rise in the capacity of the French economy to sustain higher non-inflationary growth than in the past, resulting from a rise in capital accumulation and a fall in structural unemployment; the Council considers, in view of the above, the macroeconomic projections of the favourable scenario as attainable.

In this context, three policy adjustments are proposed: a) to the needs (the demand) for social policy to address mainly new problems which are linked to unemployment, the transition to new economic conditions and to global realignments, b) at the delivery (the supply) of social policy through the adaptation of the administrative structures to serve the new role of the social policy, and c) to obtain new ways of information handling (both statistical indicators and administrative information).Overall, the NAPincl moves along four strategic directions: (1) continued macro economic expansion, (2) employment policy aimed against unemployment and in favour of fl ...[+++]exibility in the labour market (aiding women and low income groups), (3) a series of reforms in areas linked to exclusion (Health, Welfare, Education, social security, public administration, decentralisation), (4) and three new targeted initiatives to be introduced in January 2002.

The consultant has identified three directions in which the offer of audiovisual services could evolve : a "business as usual" scenario, which is more likely to develop in the case of a negative economic environment. An "interactivity" scenario dependent on the rapid development of new interactive services. A "personalisation" scenario based on the development of a personalised offering of existing audiovisual services.

The training initiatives covered three main fields: economic and commercial management, utilisation and development of new technologies for the production of audiovisual programmes, and screenplay techniques.