Translation of "selon les deux scénarios macro-économiques " (French → English) :

[25] The Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences published recently its report 'Public knowledge investments and the value of science', which argues that, while the Netherlands has a long tradition of using macro-economic models to examine the impact of public policies and budgets, these do not sufficiently reflect the long term benefits of public investments in research and innovation.

It used national forecasts supplemented by the scenario developed by the Commission for the macro-economic framework up to 2020, together with other traffic forecasts sourced from local, national and international authorities and detailed information regarding vehicle stocks, costs and prices.

According to the European Council, employment policy should fit in with a comprehensive approach embracing macroeconomic policies geared to growth and stability, economic reforms designed to increase competitiveness and employment guidelines to increase employability, adaptability, equality of opportunity and entrepreneurship.

The World Bank has recently made two loans amounting to $ 230 million for water and sewerage projects and the IMF maintains normal relations and is ready to assist with any macro-economic stabilisation programme.

The French stability programme covers the period 1999-2002 and projects a decline in the general government deficit ratio to between 0.8% or 1.2% of GDP by the end of the period according to two alternative macroeconomic scenarios.

The Council considers that the two macroeconomic scenarios of the programme provide a plausible range of values for GDP growth between 2002-2004 and that the macroeconomic performance of France in recent years indicates a probable rise in the capacity of the French economy to sustain higher non-inflationary growth than in the past, resulting from a rise in capital accumulation and a fall in structural unemployment; the Council considers, in view of the above, the macroeconomic projections of the favourable scenario as attainable.

The budgetary projections of the updated programme are based, as in the past, on two macroeconomic scenarios, a cautious scenario, in which potential growth stays at its current level of 2.5% a year, while in the favourable scenario, potential output is estimated to gradually increase to 3% due to stronger investment and employment growth.

Economic and monetary matters are dealt with in the context of the macroeconomic dialogue which should be pursued in accordance with its own procedures.

the programme presents two alternative macroeconomic scenarios: according to the favourable scenario, real GDP growth will reach 2.7% in 1999 and then accelerate to 3%, on average, for the period 2000-2002; under the cautious scenario real GDP growth, after decelerating to 2.4% in 1999 from 3.1% in 1998, would reach 2.5% on average in the period to 2002.

The Commission main conclusions are the following: the programme is broadly in line with the requirements of the Stability and Growth Pact; the programme presents three macroeconomic scenarios, but all the detailed projections for the public finance aggregates are based on the cautious scenario; in this scenario the government deficit falls to 1% of GDP in 2002; this prudent approach was adopted by the Dutch authorities to ensure sound public finances; a more optimistic scenario, the middle scenario, seems, however, to correspond more to the current consensus: in this scenario the government deficit falls close to balance in 2002; ...[+++] the fiscal consolidation effort projected from 1999 to 2002 appears to be less ambitious when compared with progress achieved in the years leading up to 1997; the emphasis is shifted further towards reduction in the tax burden as well as increased expenditure aimed at structural improvement; this approach is understandable but needs attentive monitoring by the Dutch authorities; all favourable opportunities should be taken in order further to reinforce the safety margin aimed at preventing the deficit exceeding the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP, and thus to strengthen the budgetary position of the Netherlands.